Coinbase Warns Bitcoin Under Pressure, Citing ETF Outflows and Whales Exit

Ethereum (ETH), as the leading altcoin, often sets the tone for the rest of the crypto market. Weak ETH usually means weak altcoins. Strong ETH brings interest back to the entire sector. The question now is what happens if ETH drops even lower.

Ethereum’s December closing price is one of the most important markers of the year. The December candle often becomes the starting point of the next cycle. It captures market sentiment, shapes investor confidence and sets the foundation for how the asset performs in the early months of the new year.

Looking at Ethereum’s performance since 2020, the December close has usually increased compared to the previous year. The only exception was the 2021–2022 period. During that time, ETH collapsed by nearly 67.5%. Since then, the trend has turned positive again.

From 2022 to 2023, Ethereum gained 90.7%.

From 2023 to 2024, it added another 46.1%.

December 2025, however, is shaping up to be far less straightforward. The current ETH price remains below the December 2024 close of $3,332. Market signals are mixed, and uncertainty is growing.

In this monthly Cryptonews report, we spoke with experts to understand what Ethereum and the broader altcoin market might face this December. We also look at whether a repeat of the 2021–2022 scenario, when the price dropped by more than 67%, is still on the table.

Ethereum Price Enters December in a ‘Not Bullish, Not Bearish’ State

November 2025 was difficult for Ethereum, just as it was for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Even with negative pressure from crypto and global macro, ETH managed to close the month near $3,000. But the wick down to $2,620 looks unsettling. It wasn’t random — the market was clearly testing lower levels.

Cais Manai, Co-Founder and Head of Product at TEN Protocol, told Cryptonews that Ethereum is showing weakness, but this doesn’t mean bears are in control:

ETH closing the month almost exactly at $3,000 is a reminder of where the market sits, not bullish, not bearish, but undecided. It’s a level that reflects equilibrium rather than momentum. Bulls will point to the fact that ETH defended a key higher-timeframe structure, while bears will argue that failing to break above $3,300 shows ETH still isn’t leading the market the way it normally does in late-cycle rotations.

Speaking with Cryptonews, he also noted that one of the main issues right now is the lack of liquidity. According to him, the monthly close near $3,000 shows the market is at a turning point:

Right now, ETH isn’t sending a strong signal either way, it’s waiting on liquidity. The $3,000 close simply marks the point where both sides paused. The next move will come from external conditions, not from anything ETH is doing internally.

Eneko Knorr, CEO and founder of Stabolut, explained to Cryptonews that Ethereum still holds a major advantage. He believes the Fusaka upgrade could become the key driver for ETH at the end of 2025. Another catalyst is the expected approval of a US Ethereum ETF in early 2026, which may attract more institutional demand:

We could see ETH’s price enter the $6,000–$7,000 range by the end of January, as institutional capital flocks to the sector’s most significant ‘protocol economy.’

However, these same factors could create a bearish outcome if something goes wrong. Knorr notes that ETH could revisit lower levels under several conditions:

A decline would be triggered by two key factors: a significant delay or failure in the Fusaka upgrade, which would damage developer and market confidence, or a major macroeconomic shock that reverses risk appetite across all asset classes, pushing ETH back to test strong support around $2,500.

Manai also highlights the importance of the $2,800 area. If ETH fails to hold it and regain $3,000, the price may slide toward lower supports. But even this scenario wouldn’t break the larger structure:

The bearish setup is equally clear. If the macro environment stays tight, if rate-cut expectations fade, or if rotation into BTC and high-velocity ecosystems like Solana accelerates, ETH trades heavily. A break below $2,800 would confirm that and opens the door to $2,400–$2,500. That wouldn’t be a collapse, but it would reset sentiment and delay any attempt to retest the highs.

Stablecoin Growth Sparks a New Debate: Bullish or Bearish for Crypto?

One of the key factors shaping Ethereum’s price and the broader altcoin market right now remains liquidity. And this brings attention to stablecoin dynamics. According to Artemis, the combined stablecoin supply (by token) has stayed above 300 billion for two consecutive months.

This is a notable increase compared to the beginning of the year. Stablecoins play a critical role in market structure. They provide liquidity, enable fast entries and exits, and act as fuel for any major market move.

Many traders read this stablecoins expansion as a bullish signal. The “printing press” hasn’t slowed down, which could suggest the market is preparing for a more active phase. But stablecoins also accumulate during downturns. They can be used for short positions or kept on the sidelines for future dip-buying. The question is whether the next drop becomes a bottom with a reversal or only the beginning of a deeper move.

Stablecoin growth looks bullish at first glance, but it isn’t always that simple. Frank Combay, COO of Next Generation NGPES, told Cryptonews that rising stablecoins supply reflects much more complex market behavior than straightforward optimism. He notes that stablecoins are used not only in bullish phases but also during corrections, both for protection and for more aggressive trading:

Generally, and the current cycle is not an exception, the growing supply of stablecoins is not a straightforward bullish indicator. It reflects complex trading behaviors rather than purely optimistic sentiment. While an increase often suggests available buying power, it can also signal defensive positioning by experienced investors in both bull and bear markets.

According to Combay, the consistent demand for stablecoins is tied more to market infrastructure than emotion. Functionality, not sentiment, is what sustains stablecoin capitalization:

Stablecoins remain in constant demand because they support liquidity, trading, and arbitrage, while also serving as a safer asset during downturns. Their growing market capitalization is driven mainly by higher trading activity and the rise of perpetual derivatives that use stablecoins as collateral.

Even so, Combay cautions that stablecoin growth alone does not give the market a clear direction:

The strong and growing demand for stablecoins can be a bullish indicator, but it must be considered alongside other important metrics.

Not All Tokens Fell: The Narratives That Stayed Strong in November

Despite the broader market correction, several segments showed unexpected strength in November. Among the top 100 assets by market capitalization, the best performer was Rain (RAIN), a new token from the decentralized prediction markets sector.

This can offer clues about which narratives remain resilient. Still, it is important to note that a single outperformer does not always represent the true state of an entire sector. Often, one token can push a category higher on its own.

Interest in prediction markets remains noticeable, and some industry participants see more room for growth. Paul Thomas, Founder of Somnia, told Cryptonews that technological progress and more efficient on-chain models could make prediction markets significantly more mainstream:

I think that prediction markets will have another great year in 2026, and will actually become more mainstream than they are today. We’ll also see a major upgrade in terms of efficiency, which will be one of the primary forces driving this growth.

He adds that as prediction markets migrate away from centralized elements and move fully on-chain, new use cases will emerge:

When these markets are brought on-chain, we will see much more complex bets that could even be used for things like flight insurance, with travelers betting against their own arrivals to ensure themselves a refund.

The second-strongest token in November was Monero (XMR), a token from the privacy payments sector. Interest in privacy surged after a sharp rally in Zcash (ZEC), with some in the crypto community arguing that the industry is “returning to its roots.” The narrative may continue to develop, but these assets remain high risk. The recent moves were sharp, and markets often enter a correction after such spikes.

Another asset worth noting is Internet Computer (ICP), which ranked fifth for November performance. The token is linked to the AI narrative, and its rise likely reflects the broader enthusiasm around artificial intelligence. This suggests the sector remains promising, although not all AI tokens will benefit equally. ICP was the only AI-linked asset among top performers, but the category overlaps with other narratives that could gain momentum as AI adoption grows.

One of those narratives is Zero Knowledge (ZK) technology. Terence Kwok, CEO and Founder of Humanity Protocol, told Cryptonews that ZK systems are becoming increasingly practical and may see new demand in 2026:

In 2026, ZK tech stands out because it is finally becoming practical for everyday applications, enabling services to verify humanity, eligibility, or authenticity without accessing personal data.

There is visible activity in the sector, including Starknet (STRK). However, ZK tokens remain risky, and many are still deep in drawdown. It is unclear whether AI-driven momentum can meaningfully revive them.

Kwok also notes that the rise of artificial intelligence creates a new structural problem. This is where AI and ZK narratives intersect:

As AI accelerates the spread of synthetic identities, fake engagement, and manipulated discourse, online trust becomes a structural requirement for the digital economy, and ZK offers a way to support that trust while preserving privacy.

The idea that AI and ZK can reinforce each other is compelling, even if both narratives remain high risk for investors.

Conclusion

Gold-pegged stablecoins were also among November’s top performers, which is especially notable given Bitcoin’s absence from the list despite its “digital gold” reputation. This suggests that investors are taking a cautious approach. Bitcoin’s uncertain trajectory continues to weigh on Ethereum and the broader altcoin market. If BTC remains weak, the rest of the market will likely struggle as well.

At the same time, the data shows that some narratives and tokens continue to perform. Growth has become more selective, and traders now need to identify these pockets of strength rather than rely on broad market momentum. December will be an important month for both crypto and traditional markets. Volatility is likely to stay high, making caution and precision essential.

Disclaimer: Crypto is a high-risk asset class. This article is provided for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.

The post Coinbase Warns Bitcoin Under Pressure, Citing ETF Outflows and Whales Exit appeared first on Cryptonews.