Bitcoin is facing significant pressure on November 4, sliding below $103,000 after losing the crucial 85th percentile cost basis (~$109K), a level that has historically acted as strong support during macro-driven pullbacks.
BTC now trades around $103K, with analysts focusing on the next major threshold at the 75th percentile cost basis (~$99K), a zone that previously halted deeper corrections. The weakness persists despite macro conditions that should have supported risk assets.
Crypto continues to underperform equities even after the Federal Reserve’s 25 bps rate cut and its plan to end quantitative tightening (QT) by December.
While the S&P 500 is up 1.66% over the past month and 16.76% YTD, Bitcoin has fallen over 15% in the last 30 days and is up just 4.2% YTD. Liquidity is expanding globally — U.S. M2 has grown by more than $2 trillion since mid-2023 — yet almost none of it is reaching crypto.
ETF inflows remain stalled, digital asset treasury activity across major tokens has dried up, and more than $19 billion in leverage was flushed around the last FOMC event.
Wintermute’s November 2025 report notes that a return of ETF or DAT flows will be essential for any meaningful recovery.
Altcoins have suffered even steeper declines. Over the past week, gaming tokens are down 21%, layer-2s 19%, memecoins 18%, and mid- and small-caps 15–16%. Only AI and DePIN tokens show relative resilience, dropping just 3–4% on the strength of TAO.
Analysts warn this downturn is not a typical “buy the dip” setup but a broader test of liquidity resilience, worsened by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which the CBO estimates is erasing $7–14 billion in economic output.
On-chain data shows this fiscal freeze is already constricting Bitcoin’s liquidity profile. The key question now is whether Bitcoin can defend the $100K psychological barrier, or if deteriorating conditions will force a retest of $99K support. Stay tuned for live price updates as volatility intensifies.
Stay tuned for live price updates and real-time market reactions as volatility accelerates.
BTC Drops Below $103K – Is Sub-$100K Coming?
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